Abstract. Following the predomination of macroeconomic stabilization policies and inactive policies for alleviate the reform daze in the first stage of passage, active labor market policies ( ALMPs ) have now come to play a more of import function in passage economic systems. In this paper I present a theoretical and empirical analysis of different types of active labor market policies ( ALMPs ) . In my empirical analysis I use informations on Romania covering the clip period 2000-2005. I find that subsidised occupations are the most effectual plan to convey down unemployment. Labour market preparation and impermanent employment in public plants in community service have a positive impact. Despite their overall positive impact on unemployment rate, their budgetary cost is high and they are likely to be capable to decreasing returns as employment rates rise.
JEL codification: E24, J64, J68
There is an increasing consensus among policy shapers that actively helping the unemployment on occupation hunt is preferred to simplify supplying them with inactive income support. The danger is that trust on inactive income support may cut down work inducement and occupation hunt and hence increase the hazard of long-run unemployment. Active labour market policies aim at conveying unemployed back to work by bettering the operation of the labor market in assorted ways. ALMPs include plans such as public employment services, labour market preparation and subsidised employment. The 1994 OECD Jobs survey recommends authoritiess to “ beef up the accent on active labor market policies and reenforce their effectivity ” ( OECD, 1994 ) . The usage of active labor market programmes is frequently motivated by the demand to upgrade the accomplishments of long-run unemployed in order to better their employability.
Calmfors ( 1995 ) distinguishes four basic maps of ALMPs:
rise end product and public assistance by seting unemployed to work or hold them invest in human capital,
keep the size of the effectual labor force by maintaining up competition for available occupations,
aid to reapportion labor between different sub-markets,
and relieve the moral-hazard job of unemployment insurance.
ALMPs may extinguish mismatch in the labor market, advance more active hunt behavior on the portion of the occupation searchers and have a showing map because they substitute for regular work experience in cut downing employer uncertainness about the employability of occupation appliers.
Placements in labour market plans may supply an alternate work trial to the eligibility of unemployment benefits, since some of those who are non truly interested in work will prefer to lose enrollment instead than to take part in a plan. An inauspicious side consequence of ALMPs is that workers are locked-in preparation and job-creation plans: because of their engagement they cut down their hunt strength ( Boone and new wave Ours, 2004 ) .
Not merely direct effects are of import when measuring the effectivity of ALMP. Calmfors ( 1994 ) distinguishes a figure of indirect effects. First there are supplantings effects since occupations created by one plan are at the disbursal of other occupations. Then there are deadweight effects because labour market programmes subsidise hiring that would hold occurred anyhow in the absence of the plan. There are besides substitution effects because occupations created for a certain class of workers replace occupations for other classs because comparative pay costs have changed.
Finally, there are the effects of revenue enhancement required to finance the plans on the behavior of everyone in society.
Recent surveies nevertheless are non really optimistic about the benefits of many of these plans. ( Jan Boone, Jan C. new wave Ours, 2004 ) .
Calmfors, Forslund and Hemstrom ( 2002 ) conclude that the grounds on the effectivity of Swedish ALMPs is instead dissatisfactory. Labour market retraining for illustration has no or negative employment effects.
In 1999, Stanley et Al. sum up the quantitative effects of several U.S. ALMPs. Although the effects are rather low, they do happen that impermanent employment subsidy programmes increase the chance of happening occupations in the subsidy period, but they besides find that there are no long-run effects. Likewise, Heckman et Al. ( 1999 ) affirm that ALMPs may better the economic state of affairs for those with a weak place in the labor market, but for other socio-economic groups the effects are smaller if at all positive. They conclude that different types of programmes have different impacts.
There have been some surveies on the impact of ALMPs in passage economic systems, but there is non an abundant figure. From an overview of surveies on labour-market reforms in passage economic sciences Boeri ( 1997 ) show up that active policies, such as subsidised employment strategies and public work plans have non been really successful.
Kluve and Schmidt ( 2002 ) besides present an overview of rating surveies reasoning that occupation hunt aid can be utile, private sector subsidies are better than public sector plans and developing plans can assist to better the labor market chances of unemployed workers.
Kluve gives a elaborate overview on big assortment of different ALMP plans bing among EU member provinces and other European states. It is possible to sort these plans into a set of six nucleus classs ( Kluve, 2006 ) :
preparation ( schoolroom preparation, on-the-job preparation and work experience ) ;
private sector inducement plans ( steps taking at making inducements to change employer and/or worker behaviour sing private sector employment ) ;
direct employment plans in the populace sector ( direct creative activity and proviso of public plants or other activities that produce public goods or services ) ;
services and countenances ( steps aimed at heightening occupation hunt efficiency and matching ) ;
young person plans and for other deprived groups ( plans for disadvantaged and youth unemployed, including preparation plans, pay subsidies and occupation hunt aid ) ;
steps for the handicapped ( vocational rehabilitation, sheltered work plans or pay subsidies for persons with physical, mental or societal disablements ) .
Refering to effectiveness of ALMPs in a survey of European Commission for Employment and Social Affairs ( 2002 ) the undermentioned decisions were drawn. Training steps turn out to be effectual for peculiar mark groups ; the experiences with large-scale programmes are less convincing. Subsidized employment shows assorted consequences and a high hazard of permutation of regular employment – subsidized employment is more effectual in the private sector than occupation creative activity in the populace sector. Self employment grants show positive consequences, although the range may be limited. Consequences with occupation hunt aid are by and large positive. Effectss of ALMPs vary depending on the mark groups concerned: active steps tend to be more suited for the more deprived groups ( less dead- weight loss ) , but they may besides be good for higher educated groups.
Related to the old observation, effects of ALMPs vary depending on the size of the programme ( measured in footings of Numberss of participants ) . Small ( targeted ) programmes seem to be more effectual. Large size tends to hold a negative impact on quality. This seems to be peculiarly true for young person programmes.
Effectss of ALMPs are state specific, depending on factors such as the general economic state of affairs, degree of unemployment, the quality of PES ( Public Employment Service ) .
In this paper I investigate the effectivity of active labor market policies on an aggregative degree both from an empirical and a theoretical point of position. I study the effects of specific classs of ALMP.
The paper is set up as follows. Section 2 provides stylized facts about the system of inactive and active labor market policies in Romania. Section 3 evaluates the aggregative consequence of ALMPs on employment, labour force engagement and unemployment and finds a positive correlativity between disbursement on ALMPs as a per centum of GDP and the unemployment escape. Section 4 gives concluding comments.
2. Rumanian Labour Market Policy
Apart from troubles and holds during the 16 old ages of passage, Romania has, to a big extent, undertaken reform in all domains: economically, politically, and socially. While the first 10 old ages were characterised by the restructuring of the economic system ( accelerated in 1997-1999 ) , which suffered several crisis periods, a re-launching procedure was started in 2000. Macro-economic equilibrium, budget shortage, and the degree of rising prices have all been improved, along with a better coordination of budgetary and pecuniary policies. Restructuring has been bit by bit broadened to impact sensitive sectors and the denationalization procedure accelerated well and is now more advanced.
Since 2000, the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) has registered a steady growing: 2.1 % in 2000, 5.7 % in 2001, 5.1 % in 2002, 5.2 % in 2003, 8.3 % in 2004, and 4.2 % in 2005 and for 2006 the value envisaged is 4.5 % .
After being at an overly high degree, mean rising prices has been on a changeless downward tendency: from 40.7 % in 2000 to 8.5 % in 2005 and for 2006 the value envisaged is 6.5 % .
Although existent pay growing has recently become more aligned with productiveness additions, the governments are still fighting to command the pay measure of public endeavors. Wage developments and formation do non sufficiently reflect productiveness derived functions by accomplishments, businesss and parts and hence do non supply appropriate signals for accomplishments acquisition or for regional and occupational mobility.
The being of a double labor market with a rural labor market concentrating more than 30 per centums of the labour force and characterised by high engagement, including in the younger and older age groups and really low unemployment ( twice every bit low as in urban countries ) . Agribusiness concentrates about half of private employment and 85 % of all freelance.
The restructuring of the economic system has lead to a strong diminution in industrial employment. Agriculture played a buffer function in absorbing the employment losingss while due to the low growing and irregular development of the service sector, occupation growing has been negative and the reallocation of employment towards this sector has been fringy.
However, in last four old ages the development of the private sector has concentrated in industry and services. The new private sector has reached a size enabling a sustainable lessening of unemployment and compensating for the occupation losingss in the populace sector. There is an mean development of little endeavors, which are the chief beginning of occupation growing – in peculiar in services – which points to certain assurance in the concern environment. The execution of Law 76/2002 on Unemployment Insurance and Employment Stimulation ( which empowered ALMPs ) contributed to an betterment of employment and concern environment.
The accomplishment degree and construction of the labour force is a concern in an immediate and medium-term position. While the mean educational degree remains comparatively low it increases since the mid 1990s ; the makings held by many workers will non run into the demands of the new occupations ; the engagement rate of immature people in the instruction system is low at third degree, a certain group does non go on beyond mandatory instruction All these characteristics represent a major challenge given the of import restructuring in front and the demand to back up economic transmutation by a stronger development of new sectors.
Employment policy here is seen as widely defined – embracing human resources policies, rewards policy, the system of revenue enhancements and benefits, and the public employment service and its active labor market programmes.
Training and retraining steps for the unemployed were the first active steps put into topographic point at the really beginning of the passage period. The demand for other steps, enabling to back up employment emerged increasingly and became peculiarly pressing after 1996-1997 when the denationalization and the restructuring accelerated and resulted in monolithic lay-off. Romania so introduced recruitment inducements for engaging immature alumnuss and loans to SMEs to enroll unemployed individuals.
The new legal model ( Law 76/2002 on Unemployment Insurance and Employment Stimulation ) build on the experience gathered through the World Bank supported undertakings and provided a broader model for active labor market programmes, in peculiar by widening entree to all unemployed and non merely profit receivers.
The execution of ALMP was in the custodies of the PES that had a web of territory offices where every territory office had a figure of local Centres.
The planned and used budgets for active labor market programmes and inactive labor market programmes from the Unemployment Fund related to GDP are presented in Table 1.
Table 1. ALMPs and PLMPs outgos related to GDP
1 Ron a‰? 3.5 Euro
Beginning: European Commission for Employment and Social Affairs and Department of Labour Romania ( 2005 ) , “ Second Joint Assessment of Employment Priorities in Romania ” and www.insse.ro
The chief active steps are recruitment inducements to employers, preparation and retraining programmes, benefits assigning to the unemployed who take up employment before the period of entitlement to the unemployment benefit, support to occupation creative activity in SMEs and to concern start-ups, community work programmes and mobility grants.
Employment subsidies can be granted to employers for a maximal period of 12 months, at the petition of local public governments, for each unemployed individual hired with an single labor contract for community public services and societal services. The subsidy is 70 % of the minimal national pay for each unemployed individual. Other enlisting subsidies for the immature alumnuss, the handicapped and those above 45 old ages differ in continuance and degree depending on the nature of the contract and its continuance.
Support to SMEs making occupations, to concern start-ups or independent activity includes the proviso of guidance, aid and granting of low-interest loans ( 25-50 % of the involvement rate of the National Bank ) for maximal 3 old ages. The guidance and aid is free for unemployed having unemployment benefit. SMEs must enroll at least 50 % of the new staff among registered unemployed.
Mobility grants correspond to a lump-sum payment amounting to two lower limit rewards if the unemployed takes up a occupation in a topographic point distant from more than 50 kilometer from the topographic point of abode, to seven lower limits rewards if there is a alteration of abode.
The escape from unemployment through different types of ALMPs and the ALMPs outgos are presented in Table 2 and Table 3.
Table 2. Escape from unemployment through different types of ALMPs
Beginning: National Employment Agency: Annual Employment Report ( 2001-2005 )
ALMP1 – vocational preparation classs
ALMP2 – benefits assigning to the unemployed who take up employment before the period of entitlement to the unemployment benefit
ALMP3 – employers ‘ subsidisation
ALMP4 – stimulation of the labour force mobility
ALMP5 – allowing loans to SME ‘s for new occupations creative activity
ALMP6 – guidance and aid services for get downing up an independent activity or concern
ALMP7 – impermanent employment in public plants in community service
ALMP8 – other active steps
Table 3. ALMPs expenditures by types
Beginning: National Employment Agency: Annual Employment Report ( 2001-2005 ) )
3. Effectiveness of ALMP in Romania
Empirical work on the macroeconomic effects of ALMPs is rare. And, frequently no differentiation is made between types of ALMPs. Alternatively, the focal point is on entire ALMPs outgos. Following equation links fluctuation in unemployment and types of ALMPs outgos ( Boone and new wave Ours, 2004 ) :
uit = I±0 + I±1xit + I±2I”2pit + Iµit ( 1 )
where uit is the escape from unemployment relate to different types of ALMP expenditures i in a clip period t. Furthermore, xit refers to types of ALMP outgos and I”2pit is the alteration in rising prices rate. Finally, Iµit is the error term, which in most of the surveies is assumed to hold a random effects specification.
One of the jobs related to gauging equation ( 1 ) is that if unemployment goes up the ALMP outgos are besides likely to increase ( Boone and new wave Ours, 2004 ) . To account for this, different types of ALMP outgos are normalized as outgos per unemployed individual as a per centum of GDP per member of the labour force ( disregarding for simpleness the inferiors T ) :
where ALMPi represents types of outgos on active labor market policies, U is entire unemployment, GDP is entire gross domestic merchandise, N is the population and L is the labour force. Finally, almp % I is each types of ALMPs expenditures as a per centum of GDP, and cubic decimeter is the labour force engagement rate ( labour force as a fraction of the population ) .
In empirical analysis of different types of ALMPs it is of import to compare ALMPs outgos ratio and unemployed worker ratio ( employ by ALMPs types ) .
A comparing between ALMPs expenditures ratio and unemployed worker ratio ( employ by ALMPs types ) is presented in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Comparison between ALMPs expenditures ratio and unemployed worker ratio ( employed by ALMPs types )
Beginning: National Employment Agency: Annual Employment Report ( 2001-2005 ) and ain computation
Marcello Estevao ( 2003 ) considers that many of surveies tends to overrate the consequence of ALMPs on the unemployment rate and really few surveies focus on the most appropriate step of labour market public presentation, the employment rate. Because of this I use for my comparative analysis of ALMP effectiveness employment-population rate, labour force engagement rate and unemployment rate. There is a simple relationship between employment-population rate ep, labour force engagement rate cubic decimeter and unemployment rate Us:
ep = cubic decimeter ( 1 a?’ U ) ( 3 )
This relationship can be considered from two positions ( Boone and new wave Ours, 2004 ) . The first position is the point of position of a definition. Then, conditional on a changeless labor force engagement rate a autumn in the unemployment rate by definition implies a rise in the employment-population rate. If the unemployment rate goes down and the employment-population rate remains changeless so by definition the labor force engagement rate must hold gone down. The 2nd position on this equation is the point of position of measuring. If unemployment refers to aˆzopen ” unemployment and excludes unemployment in active labor market policies so a autumn in unemployment might concern a specious autumn ( Scarpetta, 1996 ) . In this instance the employment-population rate is a better index of labour market public presentation.
In Romania, although the economic growing was preserved for five back-to-back old ages, it did non guarantee a hearty degree of employment and new occupations creative activity. In fact, employment rates have been on a changeless downward tendency among people aged 15-64 old ages, from 65.4 % in 1997 to 57.7 % in 2005 ( Table 4 ) . The lessening in this period affected the male population to a greater extent, rural and urban populations being affected in about equal proportions. In 2005 in Romania the degree of the employment rate bases below the EU-15 norm of 64.7 % or the EU-25 norm of 63.3 % and above the new member provinces average of 56 % .
Table 4. Employment rate, labour force engagement rate and unemployment rate ( with and without ALMPs effects )
Unemployment rate* – unemployment rate without ALMPs effects
Beginning: European Commission for Employment and Social Affairs “ Employment in Europe 2005 – Recent Tendencies and Prospects ” and www.anofm.ro
Harmonizing to the National Accounts informations, employment in agribusiness, forestry and piscaries still represents the majority of entire employment, with 31.2 % in 2005, albeit falling from its all-transition period extremum of 41.4 % in 2000. The population employed in the third sector ( services, trade, Bankss, insurance, touristry, telecommunications, etc. ) has been increasing and now histories for 36.7 % of entire employment.
Industrial employment has witnessed its sharpest autumn since 2000. In 2005, employment in industry and building represented 32.1 % of the sum.
Large countries of subsistence economic system still remain and to a certain extent prevail throughout the state. High portions of both subsistence agricultural employment and dwindling industrial employment point to the fact that farther attempts are necessary to better the investing clime, to set in topographic point growing heightening model conditions, every bit good as upgrading of accomplishments to fit the demands of the labour demand and alteration of the Labour Code. Therefore bring forthing more attractive occupations and driving the on the job age population out of subsistence employment and inaction ( estimations are of 1 million people employed by the informal economic system, plus 4 million in subsistence agriculture ) .
The high rates of idling in the economically active age class, the great figure of people working in subsistence agriculture and migration of labor ( estimated at 2 million people ) are happenings that could account for the lessening in the figure of people gaining rewards, without any corresponding growing in unemployment rates. A factor partially extenuating the consequence of lay-offs from state-owned concerns was the development of private sector employment.
In conformity to the National Employment Agency informations, unemployment rate decreased to 5.8 % in 2005, compared with 6.8 % the old twelvemonth. As a consequence, while the official unemployment rate will go on to stay low for a piece, attending has to be paid to increasing the labor force engagement rate for the on the job age population.
Unemployment has affected foremost and first workers, due to the industrial diminution, where a big figure of people were made redundant following the reconstituting procedure, accounting for 73.8 % in 2005 of the entire figure of registered unemployed individuals.
Long-run unemployment ( one twelvemonth and over ) saw an addition from 3.2 % in 2001 to 4.2 % in 2005. While overall unemployment is falling, long-run unemployment is invariably lifting, therefore organizing a difficult nucleus mass of long-run unemployed towards which the ALMPs have to be focused during the coming old ages.
The labour force engagement rate decreased from 64.8 % in 1996 to 57.7 % in 2005. The changeless lessening in the comparative size of the economically active population reflected structural force per unit area of the economic system enduring extremist transmutations. Strategy mistakes sometimes have been added and played the function of easing this tremendous force per unit area, as in the instance of the early retirement moving ridge. Despite some indicants that early retirement may decelerate down ( in 2005 the phenomenon was at 51.4 % from its 2001 degree ) at least in certain sectors, the chances are non clear, and a close monitoring is needed, in order to better measure the impact of early retirement on the activity rate and the sustainability of the pensions system placed under control merely in the last old ages.
The ripening of population and increasing inaction rate generate an addition in the economic old age dependence rate. While in 1990 there were 3.4 employees for 1 pensionary, in 2005 the ratio was 0.7 employees for 1 pensionary.
It is well-known that ALMPs have macroeconomic effects, i.e. the wage-setting behavior and houses ‘ vacancy supply or demand for labor may alter ( Calmfors, 1994 ; Calmfors and Lang, 1995 ; Holmlund and Linden, 1993 ) . The literature provides statements for both increased and decreased wage-pressure.
In short, increased wage-pressure stems from I ) a more generous payment of programme participants than openly unemployed, connoting that the public assistance loss of going unemployed lessenings ; two ) an improved matching procedure implies lower expected engaging costs of the houses and therefore the supply of vacancies additions which in general improves the employment positions for all unemployed workAers taking to increased wage-pressure ; and eventually iii ) a reduced hazard of becomAing long-run unemployed improves the employment perspectives for unemployed workers, and as the long-run unemployed are characterized by a lower matching chance than the short-run unemployed, we obtain increased wage-pressure. The decreased hazard of going long-run unemployed, on the other manus, increases competition for the available occupations and thereby tends to diminish pay force per unit area. The net consequence on wage-pressure is therefore equivocal.
Marcello Estevao ( 2003 ) considers that ALMPs may impact employment through four ways. To catalogue these effects consider a simple labor market theoretical account with a downward-sloped labour demand and an upward-sloped labor supply ensuing from the pay bargaining theoretical accounts discussed in Layard et Al ( 1991 ) . ( Figure 2 and Figure 3 )
Figure 2. The labour supply effects
Figure 3. The labour demand effects
Beginning: Estevao, Marcello ( 2003 ) , Do Active Labour Market Policies Increase Employment? , IMF Working Paper, European Department, WP/03/234.
First, ALMPs may bring forth more efficient fiting between occupation vacancies and unemployed workers because of accommodations in job-seekers ‘ accomplishments ( for case, through preparation plans ) or more effectual searching. The ensuing smaller ratio between vacancies and unemployment reduces pay force per unit area, which causes a downward displacement in the labour supply curve, and, because vacancies are dearly-won to employers, provides an outward displacement in labour demand. Both effects will be given to raise employment with an unsure concluding consequence on existent rewards.
Second, labour force productiveness may increase, owing to either preparation plans or retraining, in the instance of direct subsidies to occupation creative activity. This productiveness addition would switch labour demand up and lift employment and rewards.
Third, occupation creative activity programmes ( e.g. , direct employers ‘ subsidisation, loans to SME ‘s for new occupations creative activity ) may bring forth windfall effects ( replacement for nonsubsidized employment ) doing ALMPs ineffective. However, the associated income consequence from an overall decrease in labor costs could be big plenty to increase labour demand, connoting higher rewards and employment in equilibrium.
Fourth, active policies may take down the disutility of being unemployed, as they provide an business to otherwise unemployed workers, some income, and a hope of maintaining their labor accomplishments. Workers would so demand higher rewards during bargaining and, in equilibrium, employment would be lower.
Even if a positive consequence on employment might be discerned, the financial cost of ALMPs may be really high, raising the inquiry of their overall effectivity in a general equilibrium or cost-benefit sense ( Table 5 ) .
Effectiveness of different ALMPs types in a cost-benefit sense could be formulate in this manner:
where represent costs to use one unemployed worker ( by ALMPs types and old ages ) and represent mean compensations per unemployed worker ( by old ages ) .
Table 5. Costss to use one unemployed worker ( by ALMPs types )
Beginning: Annual Employment Report ( 2001-2005 ) at www.anofm.ro
On this point of view the most effectives ALMPs are developing and retraining programmes, benefits assigning to the unemployed who take up employment before the period of entitlement to the unemployment benefit, support to occupation creative activity in SMEs and to concern start-ups ( Iµit & gt ; 1 ) . ( Table 6 )
Table 6. Effectiveness of ALMPs types
Beginning: Annual Employment Report ( 2001-2005 ) at www.anofm.ro
During five last old ages Rumanian labor market had a contradictory development ( Figure-4 ) . Occupied population ( labour market demand ) and labour force ( labour market supply ) have been diminishing in recent old ages bespeaking that economic growing did non yet have positive effects on employment. However the unemployment rate decreased to 5.8 % in 2005 thanks to a positive equilibrium between labour market demand and supply. Temporary and lasting migration is another component to take into history. Labour productiveness exceeded existent pay tendency bring forthing a asset of labour demand. ALMPs exerted a positive consequence to labor market demand agring to unemployment autumn.
Figure 4. Real pay, occupied population, labour productiveness and labour force tendencies
Beginning: European Commission for Employment and Social Affairs “ Employment in Europe 2005 – Recent Tendencies and Prospects ” , www.anofm.ro and ain appraisals
Romania is characterized by the being of a double labor market with agribusiness and migration playing a buffer function for the employment losingss in the restructuring procedure of the industry. Therefore employment and labour engagement rates are invariably worsening. Decreasing the size of the concealed dimension of both employment and unemployment is of great concern for the future public action. While concealed unemployment may be high in peculiar in the agricultural sector and, more general, in the rural countries, existent employment, including those working in the big informal economic system, is hard to measure.
This paper has presented empirical grounds on the impact of ALMPs. The consequences show that, as expected, ALMPs seem to hold been effectual, on norm, in diminishing unemployment rates. Among such policies, direct employers ‘ subsidisation to occupation creative activity and impermanent employment in public plants in community service seemed the most effectives.
Decision shapers should clearly concentrate on the type of plan in developing their ALMPs portfolio: Training plans should be continued, and private sector inducement strategies should be fostered. Particular attending should be paid to reding and aid services for get downing up an independent activity or concern and allowing loans to SME ‘s for new occupations creative activity. Impermanent employment in public plants in community service, on the other manus, must diminish because are often damaging sing participants ‘ employment chances.
However, even though ALMPs do diminish unemployment, they besides weigh to a great extent on the budget. Institutional reforms to take down production costs and heighten labour market flexibleness and work inducements are a better manner to increase employment rates.